2006 Summer Review: "A Nice Summer That Had Something For Everyone"

Some stifling hot and humid days, some chilly cool days, plenty of sunny and warm days –and let’s not forget the refreshing cooler breaks interspersed amongst them - pretty well sums up the Summer of 2006 when it comes to temperatures. All in all, just about everyone had to be satisfied (within reason)during this summer, at some point with their particular type of summer preference. The number of 90 degree days, always a quick and popular gauge on how hot the summer felt is right up there near the normal /12/ with 11 thus far at Detroit into early September. The same goes for Flint which had the normal amount of 90s with 7 days of 90 degrees or better, while Saginaw completes the picture also having the average amount of 90s usually seen in a season with 8. And, just to get an idea what was on people’s minds about the weather during the Summer of 2006, when asked how they felt about the summer, the nearly universal comment was it was a generally a nice or good summer!

Not only were the temperatures somewhat variable and thus, overall pleasing, so was the rainfall pattern. Nearly all sections of Southeast Lower Michigan received plentiful (in some scatted cases, too plentiful) rainfall during the summer growing season. This more than adequate rainfall actually carried over from the spring and resulted in, for the most part, a good growing season across Southeast Lower Michigan . There were just two seasonably dry periods during the summer. One extended early to mid June (4 -17th), while the other appeared early to mid August (strangely enough, about the same dates, give or take a few days depending on location).

The summer statistics actually don’t lie this time and pretty well reflect the type of summer we experienced across Southeast Lower Michigan .

SEVERE WEATHER:

All things considered, the severe weather season was fairly active (especially June and July) but

overall, still within normal (or average) limits with some trends noted in the severe weather patterns

and resulting statistics. Only two tornadoes were confirmed thus far (through August) this season

and those were just weak F0’s tornadoes. Both weak tornadoes occurred in the extreme southeast

corner of Lower Michigan (in Monroe and Lenawee Counties) with very little damage. While tornado

confirmation was a bit below average, the number of severe weather events was slightly above

normal. Of these severe weather events, more than the usual involved large hail while less, involved

wind damage. Flooding rains can also be a result of powerful storms as was the case this summer

with noteworthy local flash or river flooding occurring each summer month.

SOME NOTABLE SUMMER WEATHER EVENTS:

June :

- PLEASANT MONTH TEMPERATURE-WISE BUT FAIRLY WET AND STORMY

- SEVERE WEATHER BRINGS DAMAGING WINDS AND NEARLY TWO INCHES OF RAIN AT DETROIT ON THE 2ND - 3RD.

- TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ON THE 11TH

- MANY STORMS WERE PROLIFIC HAIL PRODUCERS IN JUNE BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT
   ESPECIALLY ON THE 18-19TH.

- AGAIN ON 21ST, SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING HIGH WINDS, HAIL AND FLOODING RAINS POUNDED

   THE REGION. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTIES IN AND NEAR

   TEMPERANCE AND ADRIAN. A SPOTTER IN OTTAWA LAKE (NEAR THE MONROE/LENAWEE BORDER) RECORDED
   NEARLY FIVE INCHES /4.75"/ OF RAIN.

- HAIL WAS ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN FEATURE WITH STORMS THAT BLOSSOMED ON THE 26 -27TH WITH
   SOME OF THE HAIL ACCUMULATING UP TO AN INCH IN DEPTH IN SOME AREAS BETWEEN SALINE AND
   YPSILANTI. OTHER REPORTS OF HAIL REACHED 1 3/4" SOUTH OF ANN ARBOR.

- THUNDERSTORMS ON THE 26TH JUST OVER FLINT DUMPED ABOUT 2.8” OF RAIN IN AN HOUR AND PRODUCED LOCALIZED

   FLOODING IN A SMALL PART OF EASTERN FLINT (CHEROKEE AVE/ATHERTON ROAD AREA)

- ON THE 28TH, SLOW MOVING STORMS DUMPED HEAVY RAINS (UP TO 3.0”) OVER PORTIONS OF THE HURON AND SAGINAW COUNTIES.

JULY :

- COMFORTABLE SUMMER BEGINS TO HEAT UP IN LATE JULY RESULTING IN THE 12TH WARMEST JULY ON RECORD AT DETROIT AND 16TH WARMEST IN FLINT

- THUNDERSTORMS HEAVY RAINS FROM PROMPTED AN URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING STATEMENTS SEVERAL DAYS (12,14,17,27TH) AND IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS (MAINLY OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB REGION OR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF LENAWEE AND MONROE).

- TWO BRIEF HOT PERIODS WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S (MID MONTH AND AT THE TAIL END) WERE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

AUGUST :

- STORMS ON THE 2ND BROUGHT EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN THAT POUNDED PORTIONS OF LAPEER AND SANILAC COUNTIES .

   SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVED 7 - 8" (COOPERATIVE OBSERVER AT BROWN CITY REPORTED OVER SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT A FOUR HOUR PERIOD.

- IN SPITE OF THE HEAVY RAINS EARLY IN THE MONTH, RAINFALL TOTAL FOR AUGUST CAME IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT FLINT AND JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AT SAGINAW .

- IN SPITE OF A HOT OPEN, AUGUST TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. CHILLY TEMPERATURES MID MONTH (MID 40S) HELPED TAKE A BITE OUT THE EARLIER AUGUST HEAT.

AUTUMN OUTLOOK;

Now that the summer weather is on the wane, what does the autumn have in store for the inhabitants of Southeast Lower Michigan . The following combination of national and local data suggests temperatures across Southeast lower michigan will continue to average normal to above, while precipitation averages below.

As of late summer, the Climate Prediction Center /CPC/ stated the Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures /SST/ were primarily around normal over that region. Latest indications are that they should remain that way at least for a couple of months and then may moderate slightly, enough to initiate a weak El Nino by this coming winter. But keep in mind, this is preliminary at best, and is just what some of the models are predicting. It also is important to remember that an El Nino pattern generally brings different weather trends than a Neutral, especially moderate to strong El Ninos (which is not expected at this time). Generally, it is accepted as an El Nino when the Pacific SST’s (in area 3.4) hold at or above +0.7C. Some other models pretty much hold the line at a Neutral state (or normal temperatures). Any trend change will be noted (and may be important) in regards to the Winter 2006-07 Outlook (slated to be released early November).

Note the projections of the Pacfic SST’s by the different models below (and for a quick comparison, check out the yellow highlighted area and note how the median of each, remains between zero and +1.0C right into the Fall of ’07)

Try to get out and enjoy the mild autumn days and look for the Winter 2006-07 Outlook early in November.

Some noteworthy autumn dates:

Fall begins: Just after midnight at 1203 AM EDT, Saturday September 23rd 2006

Full Harvest Moon: October 6th at 11:12 pm EDT

Fall back an hour to EST: Sunday October 29th, 2006

Halloween:    Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

Thanksgiving: Thursday November 23rd, 2006

2006 Summer Review: "A Nice Summer That Had Something For Everyone"
By: William Deedler, NWS, White Lake, MI